The news that has reduced the EURUSD to its recent lows of 1.33, as well as news stating that Greece would fail to meet the budget target set by the IMF and the EU has really not surprised us. However, any new bounce similar to last Monday afternoon would be difficult, given the timing. The Euro group will meet tonight, the next tranche of loan to Greece will not be accepted this week.
The votes on the EFSF is not completed and the meeting of the ECB weighs on the market. ISM is the only glimmer of hope. Sell the bounces of the euro will be the keyword.
The mood is reflected in the figures positioning CFTC last week. In short, the speculative market is long dollar against all currencies. From these numbers AUD long positions were destroyed, the market is now short CAD and MXN, as it has ever been over the last three years, and although the market remains JPY long, this position has been reduced.
China has released figures PMI in September during the weekend, posting a rebound to 51.2, which, however, failed to reassure markets. The figure is conservative because, in general, September bounces generally more strongly. The glimmer of hope was strong exports, the concern is domestic demand.
Japan’s Tankan survey released in September, and while the index for manufacturers was in line 2, the data suggest that the strong yen overnight. USDJPY The climbs and the fear of intervention and any rise in Treasury yields in the short term, suggest that this trend may continue. And especially if U.S. economic figures do not deteriorate, note that the regional figures highlight an improvement in the U.S. ISM index.
